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Citation - WoS: 2
Citation - Scopus: 2
Multivariate Assessment of Low-Flow Hazards Via Copulas: The Case Study of the Coruh Basin (Turkey)
(MDPI, 2020) Tosunoglu, Fatih; Salvadori, Gianfausto; Yilmaz, Muhammet
Bivariate modeling and hazard assessment of low flows are performed exploiting copulas. 7-day low flows observed, respectively, in the upper, middle and lower parts of the coruh basin (Turkey) are examined, considering three pairs of certified stations located in different sub-basins. A thorough statistical analysis indicates that the GEV distribution can be used to model the marginal behavior of the low-flow. The joint distributions at each part are modeled via a dozen of copula families. As a result, the Husler-Reiss copula adequately fits the joint low flows in the upper part, while the t-Student copula turns out to best fit the other parts. In order to assess the low-flow hazard, these copulas are then used to compute joint return periods and failure probabilities under a critical bivariate "AND" hazard scenario. The results indicate that the middle and lower parts of the coruh basin are likely to experience the largest drought hazards. As a novelty, the statistical tools used allow to objectively quantify drought threatening in a thorough multivariate perspective, which involves distributional analysis, frequency analysis (return periods) and hazard analysis (failure probabilities).