Unknown Sır Parameters’ Estimation of Covıd-19 Spread İn Turkey By Using Rss Method

Abstract

Ending the global COVID-19 outbreak requires multiple country-wide strategies, such as social isolation, multiple tests, and monitoring people's interactions with each other. Many countries in the world have brought their own restrictions. Many parameters such as hospital capacities, social life and economy were taken into consideration while introducing the restrictions. Some countries, such as Italy, Brazil, and even the United States, have failed to predict the course of the outbreak and did not take more stringent measures, therefore; the outbreak has caused thousands of lives and is still happening. In this study, by considering the number of COVID-19 cases and the measures taken by the government, a model was developed to track the course of the epidemic for 91 days. For modeling, the SIR (Susceptible-InfectedRecovered) model, which is widely used in epidemiology was used. To estimate the parameters in the SIR model, RSS (Residual Sum of Squares) method was utilized. By taking into account the important time intervals, such as closure of the schools, country wide lockdowns and bending the restrictions, the model parameters were estimated for these intervals using the epidemic data given by the Ministry of Health. In addition, simulation results are provided to predict how the course of the epidemic would take place if precautions were not taken at the beginning of the outbreak or if the most recent measures were continued. This model offers authorities a preliminary assessment opportunity to manage the outbreak. © 2021, Gumushane University. All rights reserved.