Simulation of Renewable Energy Systems with Alternative Energy Scenarios in Turkey's Electrical Energy Planning

Abstract

The rise in global energy demand and the escalating impacts of the climate crisis have made the rapid reduction of CO2 emissions imperative. In response, Turkey has committed to achieving net-zero carbon emissions by 2053 in alignment with the Paris Agreement, emphasizing the critical role of energy transition strategies in meeting this goal. To explore these strategies, this study developed four distinct scenarios encompassing the electricity, transportation, industry, and heating sectors using the EnergyPLAN (v16.22) software. While the first three scenarios focus on renewable energy, aiming to increase the share of renewables from 45% in 2025 to 82% in 2040, the fourth scenario incorporates nuclear energy, achieving greater CO2 reductions despite a relatively lower share of renewables. These scenarios were simulated using the EnergyPLAN model, and the results were analyzed in detail. The modeling outcomes indicate that sustainable energy transition is both environmentally and economically feasible. Additionally, a sensitivity analysis was conducted to assess variations in energy demand, and a cost-benefit analysis was performed to evaluate the economic viability of the scenarios. By adopting a multi-sectoral approach, an aspect rarely explored in the literature, this study provides a comprehensive analysis of nuclear and renewable energy combinations. Furthermore, qualitative analytical methods, including grounded theory and semantic analysis, were employed to elucidate the relationship between energy policies and modeling scenarios. In this regard, the study not only contributes to the academic literature but also offers a scientifically grounded framework to support decision-making processes for policymakers and energy sector professionals.